Lessons for Libya

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It’s around 20 years ago now, but I can still remember the buzz of a crisis. Elections in African states were generally the main cause of the “Excitement”. The Foreign Office would indicate that there were elections coming and it was possible that the wrong side might win. And if they did, an operation to protect British Nationals might be required. And it was my job to plan those interventions.

At the time I was reponsible for contingency planning for military interventions around the world. Not quite invasions, but certainly aggressive arrivals were on our menu of options.

As part of the Airborne Brigade Headquarters we had some 5,000 highly trained and very flexible forces available to execute our plans. We were well supported by Royal Marines and of course had access to ships, aircraft and helicopters. So a highly mobile and fast moving force could be assembled to deal with problems. We also worked with allies where necessary.

But it all depended on good warning and this is where it was obviously falling down, even then.

Successful operations require good information but the best source of news and warning was not the Foreing Office who we always thought were concerned about the protection of nationals around the world. No, the main source of accurate situational information was the BBC and if there was no alerts on the early morning news we knew our days would be less exciting than they might have been otherwise.

But occasionally the call came: and one in particualr sticks in my mind. We were told on Thursday afternoon that the elections migt generate a need to evacuate British nationals so could we please be ready to lend a hand. Main problem: the elections were on Sunday, so lead times for planning and reaction were tight to say the least.

Of course, the elections were not a surprise as they had been planned for months, but it was clear the Foregin Office did not want to generate too much excitement even by intimating that they had concnerns about post election security. So they sat on the problem, until they had to involve us at the eleventh hour.

And you can’t help but think that little has changed. You didn’t need the brains of the proverbial archbishop to recognise that once the revolution in Egypt was taking place that it would impact other countries across Africa and the Middle East. Yet the FO’s response indicates that there were pretty surprised when they needed to help “our” people in Libya. No aircraft available, no Royal Navy ships “on their way” and of course no semblance of control.

Years ago we might have got away with this. Once upon a time we had bases in the Mediterranean, Malta for example, but no longer do. We used to have the ability to project power in the form of aircraft carriers to hot-spots, not quite at a moment’s notice but ceratinaly within reasonable response times. They are no longer as available.

We used to have the ability to mount operations by air and penetrate troops by parachute or helicopter, but these skills have been seriously diminshed as fewer members of our Airborne forces actively parachute into operations and our helicopters and fighters both require carriers from which to launch into Libya.

All in all, this is a sorry mess and we should be grateful that, at the time of writing, the airports and ports remain open for a relatively passive intervention to rescue those in danger. One day the Foreign Office will wake up and realise that perhaps they should do more to look after British Nationals, rather then our relationships with foreign countries.