Do you want to win or do you want to succeed? That is the sub-text of General Sir David Richards’ message when he warns of a 40 year engagement in Afghanistan.
Militarily the effort there is definitely winnable. Of course more resources will make it more winnable and probably in less time, but there should be no question of “losing”. Unless we lose our political will and turn from the problem.
But “winning” is only the beginning. If Afghanistan is to stand on its own feet as a true nation, and that is questionable in itself, then we must be prepared for a very long road. A nation that has such little infrastructure, that has a poorly developed eduction system and is as fragmented as Afghanistan will take a long time to bring together. To have a trained and capable Army and Police force will take even longer.
Fortunately, Gen Richards understands Afghanistan better than many having commanded NATO troops there in 2006-7, so his warnings need to be heeded, both in Europe and Afghanistan. In Europe, Governments must be clear on their foreign policy objectives and must be prepared to resource them.
To Afghanistan there is also one clear message to the Taleban: do not expect external forces to leave the country in the near term. If politicians listen to Richards, then it will be clear that only success is on their agenda. And success will only be delivered after winning a period of fighting that will be followed by reconstruction. All that will take time.
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